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Saturday, May 21, 2005

The State of the Terrorist Insurgency

How is the terrorist insurgency in Iraq faring as a political entity, and what are their chances at defeating the democratically elected government and driving the Americans from Iraqi soil? Last weekend the New York Times published an article by James Bennett titled "The Mystery of the Insurgency" which asserts the Iraqi insurgency has no real political base and is making a grave mistake by dispensing violence alone.

A report that is marginalized by the media is the abject cruelty of al Qaeda in exploiting children, mentally retarded persons and the economically weak and use them as cannon fodder as suicide bombers. We have reports that at least three suicide bombers had Down's Syndrome, others were blackmailed to due this as their families were kidnapped to ensure that the coerced suicide bombers did the job, while killing themselves.

Autopsies of suicide bombers has revealed that three of them had Downs Syndrome (a genetic disorder that results in mental retardation). Islamic countries tend to keep the mentally ill at home, living in extended families. This and the blackmail theory apparently explains the suicide car bombs that have been set off by remote control, even though a suicide bomber was at the wheel.

Photo Credits: Indymedia

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The insurgents in Iraq are showing little interest in winning hearts and minds among the majority of Iraqis, in building international legitimacy, or in articulating a governing program or even a unified ideology or cause beyond expelling the Americans. They have put forward no single charismatic leader, developed no alternative government or political wing, displayed no intention of amassing territory to govern now. The various disparate groups fighting in Iraq have varied goals are often in conflict with each other.

But insurgents in Iraq appear to be fighting for varying causes: Baath Party members are fighting for some sort of restoration of the old regime; Sunni Muslims are presumably fighting to prevent domination by the Shiite majority; nationalists are fighting to drive out the Americans; and foreign fighters want to turn Iraq into a battlefield of a global religious struggle. Some men are said to fight for money; organized crime may play a role.

So lets focus on the chaotic nature of the insurgency and how their lack of a unified political message bodes ill for their chance at attaining the goals of thwarting democracy and driving the US out of Iraq

A careful read through of recent events in Iraq will reveal numerous documentation on the brutality of al Qaeda against the local Iraqi population, how the insurgency has failed to win the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people, the effects the election has had on the morale of the Baathist and indigenous elements of the insurgency, the fracturing of the insurgency amongst the various local and foreign fighters (al Qaeda), the will of the Iraqi people to fight back, the importance of Iraq shouldering its own security and how Iraqis continue to flock to join the fight against the insurgency, the successful operations carried out by Coalition forces, how Iraq is crucial to the War on Terror geographically and geopolitically, how the war in Iraq has drawn in al Qaeda and forced them to fight America on their own soil, and how al Qaeda is failing.

The insurgency somewhat resembles Che Guevara' foco insurgency. A question to ask is if the terrorists are taking a page from the Cuban guidebook called Minimanual of the Urban Guerrilla, written by Carlos Marighella. There is no such thing as perfect historical analogy but there are marked similarities between the Che/Marighella models of insurgency and what is occurring in Iraq.

Another report that is marginalized by the media is the abject cruelty of al Qaeda in exploiting the weak. We have reports that at least three suicide bombers had Down's Syndrome, others were blackmailed to due this with their families were kidnapped to ensure that the coerced suicide bombers did the job, while killing themselves.

Autopsies of suicide bombers has revealed that three of them had Downs Syndrome (a genetic disorder that results in mental retardation). Islamic countries tend to keep the mentally ill at home, living in extended families. This and the blackmail theory apparently explains the suicide car bombs that have been set off by remote control, even though a suicide bomber was at the wheel.

Two Saudis wished to participate in armed resistance, only to be told that suicide bombers, and not fighters are needed. This is the height of desperation, a tacit admission the insurgency cannot be won via military means. Note the young Saudi's reaction:

After a few days, the boys were received by the 'leader' of the fighters and they requested of him that he send them to Falluja. But he rejected this, excusing this by saying that the way was difficult and full of dangers… 'At that point the leader of the group suddenly showed them the truth regarding which the young men felt the strongest bitterness. So then he said: We have a group of automobiles ready to perform suicide operations. The young men almost lost consciousness from the terror of the shock. And they said to him: how our coming to Iraq has come to this end in a suicide operation with such ease! He answered them indifferently: this is what we have now, and if you want you may look elsewhere! At that moment they decided to return to their country, and completely changed their minds about participating in what they thought was resistance in Iraq.'

We saw a similar reaction from Pakistanis eager to fight in Afghanistan during Operation Enduring Freedom. Many Pakistanis were encouraged by their clerics to cross the border and fight the American infidels during the invasion of Afghanistan. They were provided poor leadership, arms and training, and were butchered when faced with superior American firepower. Those who survived were aghast at the loss of life and the utter disregard the Taliban and al Qaeda had for them.

Al Qaeda has a knack for poisoning the hearts and minds of those disillusioned enough to support them, and this is clearly exposed on the battlefields of Iraq as it was in Afghanistan. This is the kind of desperate and soulless enemy that we are up against.

Story Credits Bill Roggio

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