Iran Vote Can the Revolutionary Guards make a comeback?

Four of the eight candidates running in Iran's presidential elections on June 17 have worn the uniform of the Pasdaran or Revolutionary Guard, the elite hardline armed force that answers directly to the country's supreme leader, the Ayatollah. But many fear a military figure at the helm of the country would only lead Iran headlong into war with the US. And the four candidates in question have far from blemish-free histories.

Can such people build a democracy?

"If a military figure succeeds Mohammad Khatami," Tajzadfeh writes in his analysis," it also reinforces that belligerent front, which, with the constant pressure on the White House, portends military intervention against the Islamic Republic." According to a recent survey carried out by the Gallup pollsters, 66 per cent of Americans are currently opposed to US military action against Iran. "The election of a general to the Presidency of the Republic would reverse this trend in favour of the neo-conservatives, who would use the possible electoral victory of a military figure as a valid reason to put into action their plans for the 'Iraqisation' of Iran," Mostafa Tajzadeh concludes.

In the last Iranian elections, only a little over 50 per cent of the electorate turned out to vote. The presence of military figures, according to polls carried out by independent sources, is likely to cause even greater abstention, which could even push the turnout to below 40 per cent. In the minds of most Iranians, military figures represent a more aggressive and authoritarian power.

Photo credits: Goryachiy Narod

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Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, former commander of the Pasdaran's helicopter unit. For five years, until March 20 this year, he was the chief of police. It was he who led the police, when they entered university lecture theatres and student dormitories in 1999, truncheons in hand, killing or injuring anyone they found and destroying the buildings. General Ghalibaf now presents himself to the electorate wearing fine Italian suits and talking of happiness as the central plank of his manifesto.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, elected Mayor of Tehran two years ago with the votes of just four per cent of the city's citizens, comes from the Al Quds Battalion of the Pasdaran, which was responsible for operations abroad. He is suspected of having participated in certain operations in western Europe and the Austrian police say he is a suspect in the killing of three Iranian Kurdish leaders in an ambush on the outskirts of the Austrian capital Vienna.

Ali Larijani, the former director general of Iranian state radio and television, is the fourth candidate to come from the ranks of the Pasdaran. He is currently adviser to the head of the Revolutionary Guard, the powerful Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but for two years he was vice minister of the Pasdaran, before the Revolutionary Guard fell under the remit of the defence ministry. The presence of military figures on the political scene is rare in Iran. Only on one occasion in the 25 years of the Islamic Republic has a military man put himself forward in the presidential elections. In 2001, the candidacy of the current defence minister, Admiral Ali Shamkhani, amazed and worried many. On that occasion Saiid Hajjarian, one of Khatami's main mentors, said a man in uniform running for president was: "a move which is foreign to the tradition of the country and culture of its society."

Saiid Hajjarian, now consigned to a wheelchair following an attack organised by the Iranian Hezbollah, once wrote in an article for a reformist newspaper: "the political regimes can be defined in two ways; those which are normal and those which are exceptional." He continued: "The normal ones are the western-style democratic liberal ones, while the exceptional ones are all the sons of Bonapartism, fascism or populism."

The Iranian reformist idealogue returns to talk of the risks represented by the presence of military figures on the political scene. "In a country like Iran, where civil society still hasn't made its mark on the power structure, the presence of the military in the elections could result in the formation of a military government, a new representation of the old Bonapartism," warns Hajjarian.

This danger is also widely discussed by the former interior minister and Islamic reformism theorist, Sayyed Mostafa Tajzadehin, in an analysis published in the last few days on the Rouydad news website. "If the armed forces and paramilitary organisations like the Pasdaran are to remain the main means of guaranteeing the security and territorial integrity of the country, they should stay out of the political mix."

Tajzadeh and other Iranian political analysts note that the presence of four candidates from the ranks of the Pasdaran first and foremost represents a threat for the unity of the Guard itself, as the different commanders and officers will be forced to side with one of the candidates during the electoral campaign, therefore breaking the traditional unity that has always characterised the Revolutionary Guard.

"If running for president were to become the norm," says Mostafa Tajzadeh, "then all the commanders would operate conditioned by politics, with one eye permanently on the political scene, increasingly neglecting their role as guarantors of the constitution and guardians of our territorial integrity."

Another reason why many Iranian political figures openly oppose the entrance of uniformed men into the political arena is how this presence could be viewed within the country, especially among young Iranians. The troops of the Islamic Republic certainly don't represent the reformist idea that characterises a society in which 70 per cent of citizens are younger than 30, and 40 per cent are not even 16. "In a region like the Middle East, the victory of a general in the presidential elections would not be viewed as the triumph of peace and coexistence, but instead as a sign of arrogance, from a country which certainly isn't enjoying good relations with its neighbours at the moment." In the reform camp, the presence of candidates in uniform in the presidential elections, will surely only contribute to the growing fears in the West over the Islamic Republic's nuclear programmes.

"If a military figure succeeds Mohammad Khatami," Tajzadfeh writes in his analysis," it also reinforces that belligerent front, which, with the constant pressure on the White House, portends military intervention against the Islamic Republic." According to a recent survey carried out by the Gallup pollsters, 66 per cent of Americans are currently opposed to US military action against Iran. "The election of a general to the Presidency of the Republic would reverse this trend in favour of the neo-conservatives, who would use the possible electoral victory of a military figure as a valid reason to put into action their plans for the 'Iraqisation' of Iran," Mostafa Tajzadeh concludes.

In the last Iranian elections, only a little over 50 per cent of the electorate turned out to vote. The presence of military figures, according to polls carried out by independent sources, is likely to cause even greater abstention, which could even push the turnout to below 40 per cent. In the minds of most Iranians, military figures represent a more aggressive and authoritarian power.

This year in Iran they are celebrating the centenary of the constitutional revolution. A revolution, which like so many other revolutions, began well but ended in chaos. The chaos of a century ago took another military man to power; the Cosack officer Reza Khan, who, raising the flag of the republic against the corrupt Qajar monarchy, ended up declaring himself king and dictator and founding the Pahlawi dynasty, which was overturned 25 years ago by the Islamic revolution and Ayatollah Seyyed Rouhollah Mussawi Khomeini. The election of a military figure exactly a century after Reza Khan's coup, will certainly not evoke pleasant memories in the minds of Iranians.

Reinforcing the idea that the presence of a military candidate in the presidential elections doesn't bode well are statements from the supporters of the former generals who are running in the election to succeed Mohammad Khatami. "A military president, at a time as delicate as this, where the threat of the enemy is becoming ever more insistent, would be ideal," said General Ali Afzali, Deputy Commander in Chief of the Pasdaran.

"The country is tired of the politics and politicians and is calling for a strong leader for the nation," said the former chief of police and presidential candidate Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. "I will be a new Reza Khan, a Reza Khan with Hezbollah ideals," Ghalibaf added, during a recent electoral meeting.

"To celebrate the centenary of the constitutional revolution with the election of a military leader to the presidency of the Republic would stress the Islamic nature of Iran," write the radical islamics of the magazine Shoma, mouthpiece of the oldest Iranian Islamic party, Motalefeh Eslami, "and forever cast out those who talk of democracy and human rights."

Ahmad Rafat writing in Adnki

After fighting an almost decade-long war with hundreds of thousands of casualties and seeing Saddam Hussein's regime fall over two years ago, Iran maintains that it wants to have good ties with Iraq. In a trip to Baghdad in May, the Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharrazi, promised that Iran would not interfere with Iraq's government and vowed to secure its long border with its neighbour. However, not everyone believes Tehran's statements and with the coming presidential elections, there are diverging views as to how Iran's intentions within Iraq will eventually play themselves out.

"These two countries have fought a nasty war for a long time and so both don't want any potential threat to emerge from the other," said Patrick Clawson, the deputy director of the right-leaning Washington Institute for Near East Policy in an interview with Adnkronos International (AKI).

"Over the long term, Iran really wants an Iraq that is friendly or at least so preoccupied that it is no danger to Iran," he said. In the short term however, Iran doesn't "want Iraq to be used as a launching pad for any action by the United States." The American president Geroge W. Bush has included Iran in his "axis of evil" with the US suspicious of Iran's nuclear programme, convinced that it is developing atomic weapons.

The end of Saddam's regime however saw a rare moment of accord between Tehran and Washington in that both welcomed the end of his rule but concerns have risen in Iraq's future post-Saddam. Having US forces right at their doorstep is not what the Iranians want. As for the Americans, they are "leery of Iran's intensions in Iraq" even though there is an understanding that Iran's security interest is only natural with a shared border, said Clawson.

The shared border is not the only thing linking the two neighbours. Both Iran and Iraq have majority Shia Muslim populations. This has formed the basis of Iran's interest even in the past when Iran's kings travelled to the Shia holy city of Karbala and there were contacts with the Shia shrines in that city and in Najaf, according to Alireza Nourizadeh, a London-based journalist and director of the Center for Arab-Islamic Relations (CAIR). He too feels that connections and interference continue today.

"The Shia groups because of the religious links with Iran, want to please Iran to make sure that their activities will not be contradicted," Nourizadeh told AKI, pointing out the clear empathy between the current Iraqi regime and Iran with Iraq's Shia prime minister Ibrahim Jaafari leading the Daawa party that historically has links with Iran.

Some observers suggest that Iran would like to see a similar style Islamic regime in Iraq, but one that does not pose a threat to Iran's current regime, under the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

According to Michael Rubin, a former political adviser to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq and a resident scholar with the right wing, American Enterprise Institute, Iran wants a "weak but compliant little brother in Iraq."

Rubin told AKI that the fact that "the Iranian ambassador to Iraq was a member of the Revolutionary Guards’ Qods Force (the forces that focus on security and secret operations) rather than the diplomatic service is an indication of Iran's interference in Iraq's affairs."

With the presidential elections in Iran just days away, the candidates and the different camps they represent, whether hardline, conservative or reformist, may have an impact on the way in which Iran deals with Iraq in the future.

"There are three main candidates, Rafsanjani, Moin and Ghalibaf," said CAIR's director, Nourizadeh, referring to Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former president and front runner who is seen as a pragmatic conservative; Mostafa Moin, the reformist candidate, initially barred by the Guardian Council from taking part but who received clearance when the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stepped in on his behalf; and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, one of the several hardline candidates among the eight running for president, who headed the Revolutionary Guards in the 1990s and later became the chief of police.

"If Qalibaf wins, the actvities of the Revolutionary guards and the Qods forces will increase in Iraq although the facade will be that Iran continues normal realtions with Iraq," said Nourizadeh. "It will be a disaster for Iraq, if he is elected."

The election of Rafsanjani will see more diplomacy between Iran and the United States, he said with Rafsanjani seeking possible concessions from the Americans on its nuclear programme and human rights record. In exchange Iran would be prepared to limit its alleged support, logistic or otherwise for insurgent operations inside Iraq, Nourizedeh said.

"If Moin wins, he looks at politics through the eyes of principles and he will support all elements of Iraq's democracy," said the director of CAIR.

Despite such speculation in the run up to the June 17 election, other observers feel that the post of the president is purely ceremonial when it comes to Iran's foreign affairs.

"The Iranian president is not a significant player," said Patrick Clawson with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "He has become a foreign handler, as they say in Iran, to smile and be nice to foreigners but he has no particular power at all."

According to Clawson, Iran's policy in Iraq is really in the hands of the supreme leadership of Ayatollah Khamenei and the hardline Revolutionary Guards, Iran's military organisation that answers directly to Khamenei.

Story Credits: Adnki

IRAN VOTE: Iranaian Arab Leader says Mullah regime behind bombs

The run up to Friday's presidential elections in Iran has been marred by violence with explosions in Tehran, the oil capital, Ahwaz, and Zahedan, the capital of Iranian Baluchistan. There have also been protests in areas populated by ethnic minorities, often brutally repressed by the police. The authorities in Tehran have accused the Arab minority of fomenting unrest. Hossein al Ahwazi, an exiled leader of the Ahwaz Democratic Solidarity Front, says the group has no involvement in the unrest.

In an interview he accused the government of benefiting from a 'strategy of tension' that involved the use of violence.While there have been demonstrations by the Kurdish and Azeri minorities in recent weeks, the Iranian Arabs, who enjoy the support of some countries in the region, have been involved in the most violent demonstrations. The Arab minority accuses the regime of the Ayatollah of wanting to 'ethnically cleanse' the oil rich areas of the south.

The Ahwaz Democratic Solidarity Front is one of the main organisations. It's leader Hossein al Ahwazi, who lives in exile in London, said his group was committed to non-violent change.

"I do not know who was behind the recent explosions in Ahwaz and elsewhere, so I cannot pass opinion on this," he said. "The Front is against any form of violence and we believe that the current authoritarian regime must be fought with non violent methods and above all with civil disobedience."

To understand who is behind the bomb blasts, he argued, "you need to first see who are the beneficiaries of this strategy of tension. At that point identifying those who ordered and carried out the attacks will not be very difficult".

"The regime is very afraid of absenteeism [in this Friday's presidential elections] so its not surprising that some government sectors are lurking behind these explosions, with the aim of inciting people to vote."

The Front wants to see "real reforms carried out, not purely cosmetic and propagandist operations."

“The unity of peoples who have for centuries lived together in Iran can only be strengthened by mutual respect," he added. "Co-habitation without consensus and imposed with force could lead to civil war," said al Ahwazi.

His party has called on Iranians to boycott the elections. "We do not expect anything from this vote, because you cannot even define it as an election, it's just a consultations where a limited group of men without any popular mandate choose the candidates.," he said.

"The current constitution has transformed the president of the republic into a figure with no real power. The real levers of power are all in the hands of the Supreme Leader," said al Ahwazi.

Adnki ______________

Arab Mayhem resumes against Persians

Despite Islam, the Arab-Persian relations are one of acrimony. Islam itself was imposed by the conquering Arabs on the Zoroastrian Persians in the 7th century. The animosity reared its head up during the eight year long Iran-Iraq war. And is now rearing its head up once again.

Last week, in the march against the Tehran regime since April, the ethnic Arab rebels of Iran’s southwest province of Khuzestan have for the first time struck an Iranian oil target. This attack, revealed here by Exclusive Iranian sources, took place Wednesday, June 8. The guerrillas struck the new petrochemical installations of the Karoun Oil and Gas Production’s drilling and well services, east of the provincial capital of Ahwaz.

Saturday night, June 11, President Mohammed Khatami flew in to the restive region which supplies 80% of Iran’s oil output to assess the damage.

Four hours after he returned to Tehran, Arab guerrillas detonated four bombs in Ahwaz – one at least by a suicide bomber - against the Iranian planning ministry near the governor’s seat, the central post office, the housing ministry and the home of the Tehran-appointed director of the local television station. At least eight people were killed, up to 35 injured

Later Sunday, June 12, a busy Tehran square was the scene of another bombing attack, the first the Iranian capital had experienced in a decade. One person was killed, according to the Iranian interior ministry.

The Khuzestan Arab guerrillas, calling their movement Nahda (Renaissance), hit the two Iranians cities five days before the June 17 presidential election. They brought to a climax bombing attacks for weeks against trains, banks and government buildings - and most recently nightly shooting attacks on the Ahwaz campaign offices of presidential candidates Hashemi Rafshanjani and former Revolutionary Guards commander Mohsein Rezai. Nahda appears to represent a coalition of Khuzestan’s at least eight anti-government groups.

About two weeks ago, Iranian security arrested thousands of Arab community leaders in Khuzestan, releasing them later against bonds running into hundreds of thousands of dollars against their abstinence from anti-government activities. A second round of mass arrests took place Sunday. Khuzestani Internet links were also cut.

The ethnic Arabs of Khuzestan, some 3% of Iran’s 67 million inhabitants, are now threatening to boycott next Thursday’s election. This organized protest by the 2 million Shiite Arab inhabitants of Iran’s most abundant oil center would be a severe blow for the Islamic regime.

Teheran has accused US and British intelligence of engineering Arab unrest in Khuzestan from across the border in Iraq. Iraq Kurds are also believed to be assisting the rebels. The Iranians countered two weeks ago by halting all Iranian pilgrimage to Iraqi Shiite shrines, virtually shutting their borders with Iraq. Iranian Arabs, mostly Shiites, had been making regular pilgrimages to Najef and Karbala in the last two years. Officials in Tehran accused US and Iraqi intelligence of recruiting these pilgrims and sending them back home trained for anti-government guerrilla action.

Story Credits: Debka

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